All year round, but especially during the warmer months, assessing whether the atmosphere is stable or not can make a huge impact on whether thunderstorms develop or not. During the birth of a thunderstorm, the ingredients needed usually consist of warm air, lots of moisture and upper level energy (aka CAPE "Convective Available Potential Energy").

However, one huge observation that meteorologists need to pay close attention to is the temperature structure in the vertical. In other words, how does the temperature change from the surface to upper levels. Typically, the temperature will cool away from the ground, because the ground is what absorbs heat coming in from the sun.

A question which we ask alot is, how much does the air cool in different levels of the atmosphere? Different layers can cool off at different rates depending on moisture content and cloud formations. The best chance for storm development is when the atmosphere cools off at a very rapid pace. Since cooler air is denser ("heavier") then warmer air, this creates an imbalance in the vertical when very cold air rests on top of warmer air. Therefore, when this imbalance occurs, storms are the end result.

Thunderstorms can even occur when the temperature is below freezing and during snowfall. This phenomenon is coined "thunder snow." The point I am trying to get here is that in weather, it all relative. Relative to the ground temperature, how much does the temperature change above the ground? Once the answer is known, then the assessment can be made, but dealing with thunderstorms is still a tricky matter in pinpointing where they will form.

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