With September right around the corner, the peak of the Hurricane season looms near. Despite the most active time in the tropics just three weeks away, currently there is a traffic jam in the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane Danielle continues to move into the north Atlantic and weaken significantly, Hurricane Earl poses a threat to the east coast and behind Earl is another tropical wave.

As of early this morning, Earl remains a category two storm with sustained winds clocked at 100mph, with higher gusts. The center of circulation is just to the north of the Lesser Antilles with a movement to the northwest. Earl will travel north of Puerto Rico this afternoon and tomorrow before eyeing the US.

Two bodies of high pressure, one to our southwest bringing us the heat this week, and another in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean will help to steer Earl along the east coast. Computer guidance suggests that the orientation of the high pressure cells are positioned that Earl should not make landfall in the Mid-Atlantic, but rather parallel the mainland as this storm moves north.

By Thursday night and into Friday morning the storm’s position should be close to the southern New England coastline. At the same time a trough (or dip in the jet stream) will approach from the west. This will act as a bumper and sail Earl out to sea. However, the timing and amplitude of the trough is not well known. Current thinking is that the axis of the trough will line up from James Bay down into the Great Lakes region by Friday morning. This would keep Earl close to the coast, but no landfall is expected. If this pans out, then the center of Earl will be 100 miles off the Maine coastline when he makes his pass Friday afternoon.

If this trough happens to set up farther east then Earl will not even come close to us, but if the trough delays, then we will have a higher impact from this hurricane. Nonetheless, wave action over the Maine coastline will be comparable to Hurricane Bill. Waves will begin to amplify Thursday afternoon and remain high until Friday night. Also, the Midcoast and Downeast will have the best chance of experiencing any rain from this system.

We are several days away from this event; the track and timing can change. This is how we see the forecast at the moment; we will keep you updated throughout the week.

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