Forecasters from NOAA, WSI and even Colorado State University have been predicting a very active tropical season. Despite a mostly quiet June and July, its not until August and especially September when the tropics really get cooking. The peak of hurricane season on average tends to be around the third week of September.

At the moment there is a tropical wave that has turned into what is now Tropical Depression (TD) Four. Currently, it is located over 1,000 miles away from the Lesser Antilles and about 2,800 miles offshore from the Carolinas. Computer data is suggesting that this storm will strengthen and take a projected track to the west and northwest. Long range models are indicating that TD Four will travel between the U.S. Mainland and Bermuda. Again, this is way out to sea and many days away from making any impact, but this is the early indication of what might occur.

The largest factor in forecasting the track of TD Four is the location and strength of a ridge of high pressure over the North Atlantic. Typically, with tropical systems, its these domes of high pressure that steer the course. Additionally, we need to keep an eye on the orientation of the high. If the high builds farther south, then the track can alter greatly and send TD Four into the Gulf of Mexico. Current thinking will take the tropical system closer to the US eastcoast.

When this strom become the status of a Tropical Storm, it will be named Colin. To take a look at a satellite image of TD Four click here.

Print this Story