An Old Pattern Breaks Down, WIll The New One Bring Snow?

For about four weeks now, a persistent low has been sitting over the Canadian Maritimes and forced big storms to our south. Additionally, it has been wrapping around relatively mild air from the ocean into out region. Despite a few bitterly cold days at the beginning of February, the overall picture has been one that is filled with warmth.

What has been keeping this low spinning around in place is a burly high over Greenland. This high blocks the movement of the low over the Maritimes, which in effect, keeps the pattern in a similar state for quite some time. Recent model guidance is suggesting that we will finally get out of the snow funk and break this repetitive weather pattern.

The high over Greenland will move over the Maritimes and take the place of the low. Therefore, the low will be force out to the North Atlantic and will be out of our hair. What this means is that storm tracks will be more likely to move up the entire east coast, rather then moving north, then east.

On the other hand, if this high is too strong, then we will be left out of the snow party again. So there are some questions that need to be answered about the forecast coming up this week. What is known is that Sunday will feature a scattering of rain and snow showers. As for Monday, the high will gain control and bring out the sun along with mild air.

Once Tuesday rolls around, a storm that is currently over the southern Rockies will move closer to us. If the high breaks down and moves out then we will have a good shot at stormy weather Tuesday thru Thursday.

Other questions that need to be considered deal with the temperature profile of the atmosphere. Above the surface, there is plenty of cold air for the precipitation to fall as snow, but details on temperatures closer to the ground need to be worked out. At the moment, regions closer to the coastline will be several degrees above freezing, while the mountains should remain below freezing. Once these details are determined, then we will know what type of precipitation we can expect.

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